Likelihood to Win
Monte-Carlo projection over the full remaining bracket. "In the money" = finishing top 3. Odds are recomputed and stored whenever results change (hourly sync, ESPN refresh, or manual entry).
Last computed: 2026-07-03 16:00:02 · 4000 simulations
| Participant | Win pool | In the money | Exp. points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tosh | 58.6% | 89.9% | 111.3 |
| Josh | 12.6% | 42.4% | 101.4 |
| Peter | 8.9% | 34.1% | 100.0 |
| Eric | 8.6% | 33.3% | 100.3 |
| Glen | 4.6% | 22.9% | 96.9 |
| Jordan | 2.8% | 29.4% | 99.3 |
| Steve | 1.6% | 12.8% | 97.1 |
| David | 1.3% | 8.4% | 94.2 |
| Howard | 0.7% | 7.7% | 93.1 |
| Gary | 0.2% | 12.9% | 96.3 |
| Brooke | 0.0% | 3.7% | 93.9 |
| Joe | 0.0% | 1.4% | 90.0 |
| Lenny | 0.0% | 0.4% | 89.9 |
| June | 0.0% | 0.4% | 81.4 |
| Lili | 0.0% | 0.2% | 79.9 |
| Dzmuida | 0.0% | 0.1% | 85.7 |
| Doug | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.1 |
| Richard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83.5 |